As quantum computing edges closer to practical reality, organisations must confront a new class of cybersecurity threats.
The transition to quantum-safe infrastructure is no longer a theoretical exercise, it’s a strategic imperative. This article explores the emerging risks, frameworks, and key performance indicators (KPIs) that define quantum risk management in 2025.
The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” Strategy
One of the most pressing threats posed by quantum computing is the Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) strategy. In this approach, adversaries collect encrypted data today with the intent to decrypt it once quantum computers become powerful enough to break current encryption standards like RSA and ECC. [postquantum.com]
This tactic is particularly dangerous for data with long-term sensitivity, such as financial records, health data, and intellectual property. Even if the data remains secure now, it may be compromised in the future, creating a delayed breach scenario that undermines trust and compliance.
Risk Assessment Frameworks for Quantum Threats
As quantum computing accelerates toward practical application, organisations face an urgent need to evaluate and mitigate risks that could compromise today’s cryptographic foundations. To address these challenges proactively, specialised quantum risk assessment frameworks have emerged, offering structured methodologies for governance, technical readiness, and compliance.
ISACA’s Risk IT Framework
ISACA has adapted its well-established Risk IT Framework to incorporate quantum-specific considerations, aligning risk governance with enterprise strategy. This approach emphasises defining risk appetite, scoping critical assets, and integrating quantum risk into broader enterprise risk management.
Key activities include creating cryptographic inventories, setting migration timelines aligned with NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standards, and enforcing vendor compliance through updated policies and contracts. By embedding quantum readiness into governance structures, organisations can ensure accountability and strategic alignment across all levels of leadership. [isaca.org]
QUASAR (Quantum-Ready Architecture for Security and Risk Management)
QUASAR is a strategic framework designed to guide organisations through the transition to quantum-resilient security architectures. It operates across three core domains:
- Technical readiness
- Security readiness
- Operational readiness
QUASAR introduces quantifiable performance indicators and readiness scores, enabling organisations to assess vulnerabilities, prioritise remediation, and maintain cryptographic agility. Its modular design ensures adaptability, making it suitable for diverse industries facing quantum disruption. [arxiv.org], [devdiscourse.com]
QRAMM (Quantum Readiness Assurance Maturity Model)
QRAMM provides a comprehensive maturity model for assessing and improving quantum readiness across four dimensions:
- Cryptographic visibility
- Strategic governance
- Data protection engineering
- Implementation readiness.
This open-source framework includes automated scoring tools, compliance mapping, and detailed guidance for aligning with NIST standards. QRAMM elevates quantum security from a technical project to a business imperative, ensuring executive buy-in and sustained resource allocation. Its structured approach helps organisations move from discovery to full-scale deployment of quantum-safe cryptography without disrupting operations. [qramm.org]
QARS (Quantum-Adjusted Risk Score)
QARS introduces a quantitative model for evaluating quantum risk based on three critical factors: timeline, sensitivity, and exposure. Building on Mosca’s inequality, QARS applies weighted scoring formulas to prioritise migration efforts and compliance strategies. This model supports regulatory alignment and strategic planning by translating abstract quantum threats into actionable risk scores. Organisations can use QARS to benchmark readiness, allocate resources effectively, and ensure that high-value assets receive priority protection against future quantum attacks. [mdpi.com]
Together, these frameworks enable organisations to quantify quantum threats, establish governance structures, and develop actionable roadmaps for mitigation. By adopting these models early, businesses can reduce exposure to “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks and maintain trust in an era where cryptographic resilience becomes a competitive differentiator.
Transitioning to Quantum-Safe Infrastructure
The shift to quantum-safe infrastructure involves replacing vulnerable cryptographic algorithms with post-quantum cryptography (PQC). These key steps include:
- Cryptographic Inventory: Mapping all cryptographic assets to identify vulnerabilities.
- Hybrid Cryptography: Deploying classical and quantum-resistant algorithms in parallel during the transition.
- Crypto Agility: Ensuring systems can switch algorithms without disrupting operations.
- Stakeholder Alignment: Engaging leadership, vendors, and regulators in coordinated migration efforts. [www.sec.gov], [blogs.microsoft.com], [www.forbes.com]
Governments and industry leaders like Microsoft and IBM are targeting full quantum-safe adoption by the early 2030s, but the window for organisations to act is now.
KPIs for Quantum Cybersecurity
In the evolving landscape of quantum cybersecurity, forward-thinking businesses will increasingly be able to track quantum-specific KPIs to measure resilience and strategic progress, these could include:
Quantum Preparedness Score
This metric serves as a comprehensive indicator of an organisation’s readiness for the quantum era. It combines several critical factors, including the extent of cryptographic inventory coverage, the progress made in migrating to quantum-safe algorithms, and the maturity of governance frameworks overseeing these transitions. A high score reflects a well-structured approach to identifying vulnerable assets, implementing post-quantum cryptography, and ensuring that policies and oversight mechanisms are in place to maintain resilience.
Threat Detection Efficiency
As quantum computing introduces new classes of cyber threats, organisations must measure how effectively their systems can identify and respond to these risks. Threat Detection Efficiency evaluates the speed and accuracy with which quantum-relevant threats, such as harvesting-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) attempts, are detected and mitigated. This KPI highlights the robustness of monitoring tools, incident response protocols, and the ability to adapt detection strategies as quantum attack vectors evolve.
Crypto Agility Index
In a rapidly changing cryptographic landscape, agility is essential. The Crypto Agility Index measures an organisation’s ability to switch cryptographic algorithms quickly and securely without disrupting operations. This KPI reflects the flexibility of systems, processes, and architectures to accommodate new standards and technologies, ensuring that businesses can respond promptly to emerging vulnerabilities or regulatory requirements.
Vendor Quantum Compliance Rate
Supply chain security is a critical component of quantum resilience. This KPI tracks the percentage of vendors and third-party partners that comply with recognised post-quantum cryptography standards, such as those established by NIST. A high compliance rate demonstrates strong alignment across the ecosystem, reducing exposure to vulnerabilities introduced through external dependencies and reinforcing trust in collaborative networks.
Conclusion
Quantum computing promises transformative benefits, but also introduces existential risks to digital security. By understanding the HNDL threat, adopting robust risk frameworks, planning infrastructure transitions, and tracking meaningful KPIs, organisations can navigate the quantum era with confidence.
The quantum future is coming. The time to prepare is now.
